A professor of petroleum engineering at the Federal University of Petroleum Resources Effurum (FUPRE), Ogbarode Napoleon, has said that petrol production by the local refineries will not be sufficient for local consumption by 2020.
According to him, even if the country’s four refineries were working in maximum capacity, they would not be able to cater for local consumption without the aid of modular refineries.
In his presentation titled: “An assessment of the economic viability and competitiveness of modular refineries in Nigeria”, at the Nigerian International Petroleum Summit (NIPS) on Wednesday, Ogbarode reviewed statistics that proved his submission.
Speaking further, he said, “The four refineries will give 7.51billion litres of PMS per year. In the same vein, the Dangote 650,000 capacity refinery will give 10.97 billion litres. Total PMS production at the refineries operating at full capacity will be 18.48 billion litres”.
He noted that the plot of the 2010 to 2016 data on import and consumption indicates a gradual increase of about 700,000,000 liters of PMS per year based on the NNPC monthly financial and operations report, Premiumtimes reports.
Therefore, “By 2020, consumption will be 18 billion + 700 million multiplied by three, which equals 20.1 billion litres of PMS,” he said, leaving a short fall of over 1.5 billion. He added that modular refineries would have to cover for this to make local production sufficient.
He highlighted absence of pipeline vandalisation due to proximity to crude source; high rate of return in two to six years compared to 15 years of conventional refineries and ease of plant production capacity increase due to its amenability as the advantages modular refineries have over the conventional ones.
Responding to the professor’s presentation, the Senior Technical Adviser to the Minister of State for Petroleum, on Refineries, Downstream and Infrastructure, Rabiu Suleiman, said that Nigeria has gone so far as a consumer nation and therefore it has not been able to export petroleum products. Rather it consumes all and yet it’s not sufficient.
He also said that there would be a sufficient market in Africa for export when about two to three refineries like the Dangote refinery come on board.
Babajide Soyode, who represented the Chief Executive Officer of Dangote group, Aliko Dangote, at the summit, said the government should not get involved with the development of modular refineries but instead create an enabling environment for private sector investors to build the refineries.
